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Monday, 30 July 2018

Thoughts on Currencies and Valuations

 Unknown     July 30, 2018     1 comment   

There will always be people attempting to predict the markets. This is not only the case of cryptocurrencies, but something that reflects across all of them. The techniques used are widely studied by people who want to participate of these markets, but mastering them I’m convinced is highly improbable. As much as it may be correct to say that analysts are more right than wrong, but for a really long time I’ve been trying to think exactly why that is the case.
dawnpisca.jpg dawnpisca.jpg
What I’m attempting to express is hardly complicated. All the technical aspects used to read charts, the RSI, the moving averages, the bullish flag, etc. Might be attempting to predict market sentiment, the reaction of investors and not so much the asset’s value being traded. In other words, an unspoken agreement is made between those who are looking at the charts and a majority of investors jump in at the point of maximum agreement.
I’m thinking of this because this says very little about the value of an asset. If you were to think logically about the value gasoline for that matter. I doubt your way of looking at its value would be to attempt to predict if others would be willing to pay the same price for the gallon. You know you need it, you know it’s going to be used, so you simply purchase it.
If you are wondering why this is relevant to me or why I’m thinking about this today. Well, that is because I think a token like Steem is very close to becoming a usable asset and leave its days of exclusive speculation behind. The way I understand the upcoming SMT’s are going to give Steem the much needed boost it deserves.
I’m aware some might disagree with me on this matter, but I’m willing to backup my claims. An exclusive speculative market is extremely vulnerable to short term sentiment. If someone is speculating on Steem for example, that speculator is hardly interested in the long term valuation and a lot more in the short to medium profits to be made. This in turns gives Steem its current volatility making it harder for Long term investors to make the leap.
I’m saying this not because I believe speculation is a bad thing. In every single market in existence speculators are what give assets their liquidity thus making them an extremely important element of the ecosystem. But a healthy asset class, and more specifically a healthy asset’s value should probably not be exclusively derived from speculation.
Since it seems a little obvious to me at the moment that the speculative market is mainly driven by market sentiment, it’s also obvious that if someone would want to do something to improve the value of an asset, that contribution should be focused on improving sentiment. In other words, a positive representation of the asset, a proposed application, a working product.
On these respects Steem has a huge advantage over other assets on the cryptocurrency world and as such remains a blockchain no investor could really dismiss lightly.
I remain positive about the future of Steem as I believe it’s right on the brink of a huge transformative transition. @steemitblog has been extremely active keeping us informed. Something I’m told is fairly new, and it’s quite possible SMTs will launch before years end.
I hope many here remain positive and not allow fear to dominate. There is a lot of track before the true take off.

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What Now for a Bitcoin ETF?

 Unknown     July 30, 2018     No comments   

SEC ETF header.png

Winklevoss ETF denied, SEC Commissioner Dissents, SolidX Likely to be Delayed, but inside SEC & CTFC Sources say a "Bitcoin ETF Will be Approved This Year."

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency ETF applications are piling-up on the SEC’s desk, but why was the Winklevoss ETF denied and what chance do the remaining ETF applications have?

The Winklevoss twins were once again denied their application to list and trade shares of “The Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust” ETF on the Bats BZX Exchange by the SEC in a 3-1 decision, despite the twins making a number of changes to this most recent proposal based on the SEC’s previous reasons for refusal.

BZX makes golbal manipulation argument.png

However, it is the very nature of the global underlying market conditions of the cryptocurrency market that appears to have given the SEC concerns regarding market volatility, fraud and investor protection, in relation to insider trading, malicious software and hacked exchanges, many of which are outside the US and this being inconsistent with the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, section 6b. We've all seen how the market suffers, when hackers attempt to exploit Binance's hot wallets.

But, SEC Commissioner, Hester Pierce, who has previously made a number of positive, crypto-friendly comments, has declared her dissent with the decision;

Hestor tweet.png

Pierce argues that the SEC should permit BZX to list and trade the Winklevoss ETF, because it satisfies the statutory standard of the said act and also states that approval would actually have been beneficial to investor protection;

Pierce dissent quote.png

Commissioner Pierce’s reason for disagreeing with the SEC is that the Exchange Act “says nothing about looking at underlying markets, as the Commission often has done in its orders" and that the proposed BZX listing and trading should have been decided upon according to its own merits; “Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust (“Trust”) would trade under BZX Rule 14.11(e)(4), which governs the listing and trading of Commodity-Based Trust Shares. This rule would require the ETP shares to meet initial and continued listing standards.”

The SEC decision is in line with a staff letter published in January this year;

SEC staff letter.png

But perhaps the SEC is right to have its stated concerns in relation to the Winklevoss ETF;

Zissou Winklevoss tweet.png

Now that the Winklevoss twins have fallen out of the race, the frontrunners in the ETF race are Direxion, Bitwise and SolidX.

The SEC already announced this week a delay, until September, of their decision on whether or not to approve five Bitcoin ETF applications filed by Direxion; Direxion Daily Bitcoin Bear 1X Shares, Direxion Daily Bitcoin 1.25X Bull Shares, Direxion Daily Bitcoin 1.5X Bull Shares, Direxion Daily Bitcoin 2X Bull Shares, and Direxion Daily Bitcoin 2X Bear Shares.

The NYSE Arca exchange is seeking to list and trade the Direxion ETFs and in January they submitted a filing for a proposed rule change under the NYSE Arca Rule 8.200-E, to bring the proposed applications in line with the very same Section 6(b)(5) of the SEC Act, dealing with the protection of investors from fraudulent and manipulative trading practices. The SEC has now decided to designate a 60-day extension to consider the rule change and its final decision;

SEC Direxion statement.png

The SEC is likely to have misgivings about the leveraged, higher risk nature of Direxion’s Bitcoin ETF proposal, compared to traditional ETFs and it may ultimately prove to be too exotic for the SEC’s liking.

It’s not just a Bitcoin ETF that is now waiting for approval after an ETF application was submitted by Bitwise called the “Hold 10 Cryptocurrency Index Fund,” which, as the name suggests, will consist of the top 10 cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, Ripple, EOS, Cardano, Tron, Bitcoin Cash, IOTA and Stellar Lumens and it will be weighted by market cap.

Bitwise quote.png
Untitled.png

The SEC has not so far delayed the VanEck & SolidX ETF application, which Cboe Global Markets is seeking permission from the SEC to list and trade and a decision from the SEC is scheduled for August 10th. The SEC called for public comments on the SolidX proposal, which so far seem to be mostly positive.

Daniel H. Gallancy, CEO of SolidX Partners Inc, has been quoted as saying;

Gallancy quote.png

Indeed, the SolidX proposal will clearly be focused on institutional investors, as reflected in the minimum entry point of one SolidX share, this being 25 BTC—which is roughly $200,000, as of 28th July, 2018, thus creating a substantial influx of institutional capital waiting on the sidelines and is the most likely ETF proposal to be approved and if we take any notice of rumours, the SEC is set to approve SolidX at some point this year.

SolidX Inc has been lobbying the SEC for approval of its ETF and like Commissioner Pierce, VanEck argues that a Bitcoin ETF would be beneficial to investor protection in that would combat price manipulation;

VanEck quote.png

The SolidX proposal may be looked upon more favourably by the SEC, although it may not answer the concerns of the SEC in relation to the global nature of the cryptocurrency market and it lying beyond the control of the SEC to intervene in order to protect investors from market manipulation such as wash-trading and spoofing;

Zissou VanEck tweet.png

Whatever transpires, the following series of tweets by a lawyer, Jake Chervinsky, sheds light on the decision-making process of the SEC, so don’t be surprised, if we see an announcement in August that the decision on whether or not to approve the SolidX ETF proposal has been delayed. It may ultimately be delayed until March 2019.

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Internal sources header.png

Although the SEC is clearly wrestling with the approval of the first Bitcoin ETF, it has also stated for the public record that;

SEC bitcoin blockchian tech quote.png

And it has been reported that internal sources within the SEC and more particularly the CTFC are saying a Bitcoin ETF is very close to being approved and I merely report this, without wishing to suggest that it should be relied upon.

CTFC source.png
SEC source.png

Commissioner Pierce also alluded to the need of the US to send a “strong signal” that its markets are at the forefront of innovation and consider the need to prevent innovation and capital flight to other markets. The continued procrastinating of the SEC will strengthen Japan’s position in the FinTech race and the first ETF may well come from Canada, which has a history of approving groundbreaking ETFs before the US and the Winklevoss decision has gifted Canada more time to consider and approve a Bitcoin ETF, as Commissioner Pierce fears. The Evolve Bitcoin ETF (BITS), filed three months ago, is awaiting approval in Canada and it would track Bitcoin futures.

Some may consider the argument of Commissioner Pierce and VanEck that a Bitcoin ETF will combat price manipulation to be rather back to front and that the need for a regulatory framework to be in place before an ETF approval is the first and most important step to aiding ETF approval. The long waited for regulatory framework is almost upon us and it is reported to be positive, in order to prevent the fears of capital and innovation flight from the US.

Sources.png
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-proposal-denied-us-sec/
https://unhashed.com/cryptocurrency-news/race-bitcoin-etfs-winklevoss-twins-denied-sec/
https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/peirce-dissent-34-83723
https://theicojournal.com/source-bitcoin-etf-nearly-certain-to-win-approval-later-this-year/
https://www.ccn.com/sec-delays-ruling-on-five-bitcoin-etf-applications/
https://www.chepicap.com/en/news/2433/fud-sec-delays-ruling-on-bitcoin-etf-applications-until-september.html
https://blokt.com/news/bitwise-looking-into-launching-a-crypto-etf
https://ethereumworldnews.com/here-is-what-recent-bitcoin-btc-etf-applications-to-the-sec-mean-for-the-crypto-markets/
https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/u-s-bitcoin-etf-launch-2018-good-luck-one/

Satoshi GIF.GIF
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Bitcoin to 25k is conservative.

 Unknown     July 30, 2018     No comments   

Good day peeps, its been quite a while....Hope y'all super awesome. Well, i have to admit that im not the best in advanced TA, Gartley pattern and all but with the knowledge that i have about it, i have made the chart below based on the information we have from Jan 2017 when BTC was been traded ~$1000.
( TA pros please correct me if im wrong, not all Fib levels are taken perfectly though while plotting XABCD & im unsure too if XA could be taken from 1k to 20k)
Also with the Bullish weekly engulfing TA to me looks super bullish and things are starting to get exciting with many great news in the crypto space aswell, especially in Bitcoin.
-Coinbase Index Fund
If you US citizen, accredited investor and plan to invest atleast $250,000 this is for you and much easier for institutions to work with exchanges aswell.

-Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) - VanEck Solidx ETF
We all saw what happened with the introduction of CME CBOE futures. That undoubtedly is one of the main reasons that pumped up the price for Bitcoin to 20k. ETF is going to be even more powerful and many in the crypto space claim that we could see BTC hit $60,000 by the end of the year, but lets be conservative, i guess we could see $25k .

-BlackRock & Goldman Sachs into Bitcoin

This is why Black Rock matters. They have over 6Trillion in assets management. Again being very conservative, if they even put in 1% into cyrpto, we will surpass the Jan 2018 All time highs easily.
The very fact that Goldman Sachs backed Fin tech company Circle buying one of the worlds largest crypto exchange Poloniex, coincidence? If banks are against crypto they wouldn't be doing all this. Moreover, the to be CEO of Goldman Sachs David Solomon is pro Bitcoin too. So I guess its about time.
-Coinbase We Gift Parternship
Lastly if you are like me with everything invested in crypto and dont want to cash out, you can use your Coinbase account to authorize WeGift and the gift cards you can use at Uber, Amazon, Google, Nike etc. It comes with zero fee and instant transaction.Not just that, you will be given bonuses and discounts when you use WeGift to shop in these stores.

I understand many of you are familiar with whats going on and already know of these news via other sources but for the rest i hope this helps.
Hope this was helpful and informative peeps and do sign up to Binanceor Huobi for trading/buying crypto & in IC markets to trade crypto/usd pairs in MT4. Also consider using BITMEX and try your luck at 100x :)
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Chance To Win $100K If You Accept John McAfee’s Challenge.

 Unknown     July 30, 2018     1 comment   

John McAfee, the Crypto-crusader and cyber security expert challenged anyone to hack his BitFi cryptocurrency hardware wallet. He is offering $100,000 bounty not only one person who hacks it, but to everyone who can hack it. McAfee trust that the wallet is unhackable and challenge everyone to prove him wrong.
He gives this challenge on his twitter account where he said.
As BitFi explain the rules on their website that if you want to participate then you have to purchase a BitFi wallet which is preloaded with additional $50 worth of coins. If you successfully open the wallet and extract the coins and leaving nothing inside the wallet will be rewarded with $100,000 dollars.
About BitFi Wallet
The BitFi explains on its website that their wallet is different, and it is much more advance and secure if compare with other hardware wallets. The wallet does not store the private keys. In this wallet, your private key is calculated by using an algorithm every time the user types secret phrase.
The wallet cost is only $120 and its support all currencies and assets in one device under a single secret phrase.
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Thursday, 26 July 2018

Bitcoin Moments of Uncertainty, but either way we're probably going to struggle to do anything quickly IMO

 Unknown     July 26, 2018     No comments   

If market structure means anything to bitcoin, unless more volume comes in, the price is likely to come against more heavy resistance areas. Those are likely the going to be the major fib levels and / or the various moving averages. These are where I'm expecting things to go. The short term looks like it could be sunny, but this turnaround could be coming. If you consider the slightly downward slope of the purple triangle, this is near or closing in on the top of this move at ~$8500.
Chances are minimally we'll need to consolidate into a new swing upward into the $11700 previous swing high, and that move if its anywhere near the same period in the wave, will be around christmas just in time for another crash for taxes if that's to be believed. This could get interesting still. I'm also assuming a similar bear market to the last major bear market. It will be fun to see if the $5800 level holds. I'd expect a bumpy ride unless the exchanges somehow tamper with shit and spike the price artificially somehow. Given the futures market growing, which will probably suppress price in the medium term, sideways is probable the best option here, until we can ensure the defense of the $5755 level.
Weekly Chart
Screen Shot 2018-07-26 at 9.14.11 PM.png

Daily Chart
Screen Shot 2018-07-26 at 9.09.11 PM.png

Topping out on a 9 on the TD sequential, calling out the potential top and consolidation.
Screen Shot 2018-07-26 at 9.58.47 PM.png

I'm just some guy documenting his own expectations in this new market. Follow me or don't. Comment or don't. Upvotes are appreciate :)
Thanks.

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CME Will Not Introduce Altcoin Futures Anytime Soon, Says CEO

 Unknown     July 26, 2018     No comments   

CME Will Not Introduce Altcoin Futures Anytime Soon, Says CEO

"The CEO of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange said that the exchange will not introduce altcoin futures in the near future, citing volatility"
Read more: cointelegraph.com

More news sources

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Sign of Strength Shows Continued Buyer Interest

At the time of this article, the news from the Winklevoss ETF being denied by the SEC is still fresh and it is unclear what impact it may have on the overall macro trend of the market. Prior to the ETF ruling, the bulls continued to show demand as the bit...
Read more: bitcoinmagazine.com

Exchanges Round-Up: CME Volume Doubles Q2, Lawyer Predicts SEC Delays ETF Until March

In recent news pertaining to cryptocurrency exchanges, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has revealed that trading volume on its bitcoin futures markets nearly doubled during Q2; lawyer Jake Chervinsky has predicted that the United States Securities and E...
Read more: news.bitcoin.com

Bolivar ‘Anchored’ to the Petro to Be Issued in August, Maduro Says

A new Venezuelan fiat currency, ‘anchored’ to the nation’s crypto, the Petro, is expected to start circulating in the second half of August. The news was announced by president Maduro himself, along with other measures intended to improve the econom...
Read more: news.bitcoin.com

The Iranian Government Is Preparing to Launch Its Own Cryptocurrency

The government of Iran is preparing to launch its own cryptocurrency, according to state-controlled media reports. The intended purpose of the new Iranian govcoin is to help the country skirt the international financial sanctions meant to cut its access t...
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